Assessment of drought risk for winter wheat on the Huanghuaihai Plain under climate change using an EPIC model-based approach

نویسندگان

چکیده

Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security. The Huang Huai Hai (HHH) Plain, one of the most important grain areas in China, is heavenly stricken by drought. Motivated formulating risk prevention strategies that adapt to climate change HHH therefore, present study aims quantitatively evaluate winter wheat under multiple scenarios using Environmental Policy Impact (EPIC) model. Based well-validated EPIC model, hazard intensity (dHI), physical vulnerability (pV), (dR) Plain from 2010 2099 are assessed. Temporally, dR showed an increasing trend long term, high increased 0.63% 1.18% RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Spatially, pattern south low north whether or scenario. Comparatively, was 0.211 scenario which slightly higher than scenario, i.e. 0.207. Huanghuai agricultural subregion will be dHI-pV-dR region. temperature increase might main factor affecting risk.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Digital Earth

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1753-8955', '1753-8947']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2022.2055174